PremiumFalling labor force could prevent rapid economic recovery

The unemployment rate fell in the second quarter, but the impact of the pandemic on tourism and the increase in global competition in the age of teleworking are of concern to experts consulted by JE.

The unemployed population in Portugal may still grow by 227,5 thousand people until the end of the year. The calculations of Jornal Económico (JE), based on Banco de Portugal (BdP) estimates and data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), show that the value registered in the second quarter of this year may grow by around 80%, ending the current year with 506 thousand unemployed.

Assuming the 10,1% unemployment rate that BdP estimates for the end of the year in its June economic bulletin and using the most recent INE data on the labor market, which point to 278,4 unemployed at the end of the second quarter of 2020, the number of workers who will actively seek work at the end of the year will be around 506 thousand, well above the 352,4 thousand registered at the end of last year. The analysis already includes the decline in the active population, which registered the lowest value of the series started in 2011, with 5009,6 thousand people.

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