The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that Portugal's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by only 1,7% in 2021 and 1,9% in 2022, after falling 8,4% this year. These forecasts, which appear in the “Economic Outlook” released by the entity on Tuesday, compare with the two scenarios that had advanced in the summer, and in which, depending on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, there would be a break of 9,4, 11,3% or 6,3% this year, followed by a recovery of 4,8% or 2021% in XNUMX.
The forecasts now revealed by the OECD are much more pessimistic than the scenario put forward by the Minister of Finance, João Leão, for the elaboration of the State Budget for 2021, where it was assumed a growth of 5% in 2021 and 3,4% in 2022. And still in the public deficit, which the organization estimates to be 6,3% next year, when António Costa's government pointed to 4,3% of GDP, which could increase slightly with the measures included by the opposition during voting on the specialty.
According to the document released by the OECD this Tuesday, the “broader recovery” of the Portuguese economy should only happen after 2022, “namely in the most affected sectors, such as tourism and accommodation, on the assumption that the situation health will improve due to the distribution of an efficient vaccine ”.
“The high uncertainty regarding the evolution of the pandemic and the strong weight of tourism in GDP will slow the recovery until there is an efficient vaccine. Business investment will recover leveraged on low interest rates and community funds, ”argues the report.
Also according to the OECD Economic Outlook, the unemployment rate will reach a maximum of 9,5% in 2021, above the 7,3% expected this year, starting to decline in 2022, when it is expected to fall to 8,2 %. To facilitate the reallocation of workers, the organization recommends professional training programs.
In turn, public debt, which will reach 136,1% in 2020, is expected to reach 139,7% in 2021, dropping to 138,8% in 2022.
Recovery will be gradual
According to the OECD, Portuguese exports will have a percentage recovery above imports in 2021, contrary to what will happen this year - exports will fall by 21,3%, while imports will fall by 16,1% - and from what will happen in 2022. According to OECD forecasts, Portuguese exports will increase by 5,8% that year, while imports will increase by 6,9%.
"A slower-than-expected recovery in tourism and in the economies of business partners may further limit exports", warns the organization, also warning of the adverse effects on the financial sector due to non-compliance with loans granted to companies in the industry most affected, while state guarantees can result in “an additional burden on public finances”.