The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that the world economy will contract by 4,2% in 2020, which represents a slightly more optimistic scenario than the 4,5% drop that was announced in “ September's Economic Outlook.
Conversely, the entity revised downward growth forecasts for the world economy in 2021, now pointing to 4,2%, well below the projection of 5% released in September, pointing to a new recovery of 3,7% in 2022. .
On a positive note, the OECD said that “for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, there is hope for a better future”, highlighting the development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and government and financial sector support packages to decrease the economic impact of the health crisis.
“The worst has been avoided, most of the productive fabric has been preserved and can be resumed quickly, but the situation remains precarious for many countries, companies and vulnerable people”, reads the OECD report, which highlighted the “ excellent return ”of the exceptional tax relief measures that have been implemented throughout this year.
According to the Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, China will lead the recovery, concentrating one third of the growth forecast for next year, while Europe and North America will maintain “a contribution less than their weight in the world economy".
China is expected to register a 1,8% growth in GDP in 2020, being the only major economy to achieve a positive balance, moving to a growth of 8% in 2021 and 4,9% in 2022. For its part, the eurozone will fall 7,5% this year, recovering 3,6% in 2021 and 3,3% in 2022, and the United States will contract by 3,7% this year, rising 3,2% and 3,5% in the following years.