The World Bank estimates that oil prices will remain below the average of the last few years in 2021, a year in which the price of the barrel is expected to increase from $ 41 in 2020 to $ 44.
“Oil prices are expected to rise very gradually from current levels and reach an average of $ 44 in 2021, rising from an estimated $ 41 a barrel this year, against the backdrop of a slow recovery in demand and a easing of supply restrictions ”, Reads in the report on the evolution of raw materials.
According to this World Bank report, released following the bank's Annual Meetings and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), “almost all commodity prices rebounded in the third quarter of this year, after strong declines earlier this year due to the covid-19 pandemic ”.
In view of April levels, “crude prices have doubled, sustained by the sharp cuts in production enacted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), but they remain a third lower compared to pre-pandemic levels,” adds document.
For World Bank analysts, “the main risk to the forecast on raw material prices is the duration of the pandemic, including the risk of intensifying a second wave in the northern hemisphere and the speed with which the vaccine is developed and distributed” .
The pandemic, moreover, is seen as “a shock to the global markets for raw materials, presenting a challenge for policy makers” in the countries most dependent on oil exports, as is the case of the Portuguese-speaking countries Angola and Equatorial Guinea, for in addition to Brazil, the largest producer among Portuguese-speaking countries, with a production of around 3 million barrels per day.