Top of the agenda: what you can't miss in the economy and markets this week

The week begins with a day full of speeches by central bankers from the Fed and the ECB. The season of results accelerates and, here, João Leão is heard in the Budget and Finance Commission, precisely on the State Budget, on Friday, the same day that Parliament debates the Government's law proposal for mandatory government use of a mask and that of the STAYAWAY COVID application.

Monday, October 19

Featured event: Speeches by central bankers

The week begins with a day filled with speeches by central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at 13 pm on the benefits and risks of transnational digital currencies, while his deputy, Richard Clarida, will speak at 16:45 pm about the US economy's prospects for monetary policy. Powell and other Fed members have issued several warnings that the economic recovery is slowing, urging Democrats and Republicans to agree on a new fiscal stimulus package.

On the side of the European Central Bank (ECB), President Christine Lagarde participates, at 19 pm, in a congress in Paris, after Vice President Luis de Guindos opened, at 8:15 am, the XI Financial Forum in Madrid, on a day when there are also speeches by Yves Mersch (12:30 pm) and Philip Lane (13:30 pm).

Other events in focus:

  • China reports third quarter GDP
  • Banco de Portugal discloses current and capital accounts, international investment position and balance of payments in the second quarter
  • Eurostat publishes GDP and main second quarter aggregates in the euro area

Tuesday, October 20

Featured event: Results season goes on a cruise

A earnings season The third quarter started last week, but it is this Tuesday that it accelerates, with the results of European giants like Volvo, UBS and Enagas and American ones like Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris and Netflix.

According to data from Refinitiv I / B / E / S, analysts continue to expect a drop in the results of European companies, but are more positive than they were a few months ago. In the spring the expectation was for a 50% drop in profits for the third quarter, while a month ago it was 40% and now it is 36,7%.

Other events in focus:

  • INE releases Price Indices in Industrial Production, Interest Rates Implicit in Housing Loans, and Economic Summary of the Situation, all of September
  • Banco de Portugal publishes Statistical Bulletin, indebtedness of the non-financial sector and public administrations

Wednesday, October 21

Featured event: Federal Reserve publishes 'beige book'

The 'beige book' is a report that the Federal Reserve (Fed) publishes eight times a year and that summarizes the testimonies of businessmen, economists, market agents and other sources on economic conditions. In the latest issue, in early September, the Fed explained that economic gains were modest and that some workers who were on lay-off ended up losing their jobs.

This time, the central bank is expected to paint an even more negative picture on the American economy, especially on the labor market.

Other events in focus:

  • Inflation in the United Kingdom in September
  • Energy Information Agency releases US oil stocks data for the week ending October 16
  • Third quarter results: Verizon, Tesla, Chipotle (all USA), Iberdrola (Spain), Ericsson (Sweden)

Thursday, October 22

Featured event: European Commission releases first estimate of the eurozone consumer confidence indicator in October

In September, the consumer confidence indicator improved to -13,9 from -14,7 in August, but still well below pre-pandemic levels. Analysts' consensus points to a further decline in October to -15, at a time when several countries have been forced to impose new measures to try to count the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases.

Other events in focus:

  • USA: Donald Trump-Joe Biden final debate
  • Economy Commission: Hearing of the Minister of State, Economy and Digital Transition, Pedro Siza Vieira, “on measures to support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises”, at the request of the PCP
  • Economic climate and consumer confidence in France in October
  • USA: New unemployment benefit applications for the week through October 10
  • Eurostat reports deficits and debts of eurozone countries in the second quarter
  • Eurostat publishes second notification of excessive deficit procedures in 2019
  • Third quarter results: Kimberly Clark, Intel, Coca Cola, AT&T, American Airlines (all USA), Hermes (France), Bankinter (Spain)

Friday, October 23

Featured event: Parliament discusses and votes on the mandatory use of masks and the application STAYAWAY COVID

The "hottest" point of the plenary meeting in the Assembly of the Republic should be the discussion of the Government's Law Proposal No. 62 / XIV / 2nd, which determines the mandatory use of a mask to access or stay in spaces and public roads and the requirement to use the STAYAWAY COVID application.

The proposal to make the use of the application mandatory has been the target of criticism from various quarters, including the PSD, Fenprof and even MPs from the PS. The president of the Assembly of the Republic, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, admitted the diploma, despite doubts about some measures, given the "emergency situation" due to the evolution of the pandemic. The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has already promised to send the law to the Constitutional Court for preventive inspection of the law, if approved in Parliament.

Other events in focus:

  • Budget and Finance Commission: Hearing of the Minister of State and Finance, João Leão, in the scope of the assessment, in general, of the Great Options for 2021-2023 and of the State Budget for 2021
  • UK retail sales in September
  • Markit releases October SME indices for eurozone, France, Germany, UK and USA
  • Third quarter results: Amazon, Amex (USA), Schindler (Switzerland), Barclays (United Kingdom)
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