Top of the agenda: what you can't miss in the economy and markets this week

The week will be marked by the discussion and vote on the generality of the State Budget for 2021. Analysts and investors will also be attentive to the meeting of the European Central Bank and the signals that arrive on the economy, through the publication of the quick estimate of the GDP of the euro zone , the third quarter.

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Monday, October 26

Featured event: Statistics Portugal publishes 2019 international trade statistics

The National Statistics Institute (INE) publishes the provisional results of the statistics on international trade in goods for the past year. The data includes statistics on intra-European trade as well as extra-European Union trade. According to data released by the statistical agency earlier this year, in 2019 as a whole, exports and imports of goods increased by 3,6% and 6,6%, respectively, with the deficit in the trade balance of goods increasing by 2.842 million. euros.

Other events in focus:

  • 15 pm: Minister of Labor and Social Security, Ana Mendes Godinho, heard in Parliament on the State Budget proposal for 2021 (OE2021)
  • Statistics Portugal publishes data on tourist demand for residents

Tuesday, October 27

Featured event: BdP publishes survey on the credit market

Banco de Portugal publishes the survey on banks on the credit market, indicating data on the supply and demand for loans to companies and individuals about the third quarter of this year. In the second quarter, the demand for loans by companies “increased strongly”, with a greater impact on small and medium-sized enterprises and on long-term loans, having seen a sharp decrease in the case of individuals, in both types of credit but in consumer credit. According to the survey, published in July, this increase in demand by companies was motivated by the “financing of stocks and working capital needs” and to a lesser extent by the refinancing or renegotiation of debt, as well as the need for financing created the current situation regarding the internal generation of funds.

Other events in focus:

  • Beginning of the debate in the generality of the State Budget for 2021

Wednesday, October 28

Featured event: Parliament votes in general OE2021

The State Budget proposal for 2021 (OE2021) is voted on this Wednesday in general, before starting the specialty phase. After the negotiations between the Government and the left in the last week, the PCP and PAN have already announced that they will abstain in general, so only the confirmation of the Greens, which will announce the vote on Tuesday, although there is traditionally an alignment with the communists. The document should thus pass in the first phase, even after the Left Block announced this Sunday that it would vote against the document, joining the PSD and CDS. The final global vote is scheduled for November 26.

Other events in focus:

  • INE publishes survey on bank evaluation in housing

Thursday, October 29

Featured event: European Central Bank Governors' Meeting

Deflation and the impact of a second wave of the pandemic in the eurozone will be among the main issues that the Board of Governors will have on the agenda when they meet on Thursday, at a time when negotiations with the European Parliament on the European Recovery Plan are not yet closed. Analysts do not expect changes to the ECB's emergency debt purchase program at this meeting, anticipating that the central bank should only move forward with news in December, but attention will be focused on what Christine Lagarde might signal at the press conference after the meeting. .

Other events in focus:

  • INE publishes Business and Consumer Surveys; data on tourist activity; monthly employment and unemployment estimates; as well as housing price statistics at the local level
  • European Commission publishes consumer and business confidence in the euro area, October
  • Estimated US GDP for the third quarter is known

Friday, October 30

Featured event: Eurostat publishes eurozone GDP estimate

Eurostat releases the preliminary GDP estimate for the eurozone and the European Union in the third quarter of this year. In the second quarter, the economies of the eurozone and the European Union recorded the biggest falls since the beginning of the historical series, both in year-on-year terms and compared to the previous period. Between April and June, the eurozone's GDP contracted 14,7% and that of the EU 13,9%, compared to the second quarter of last year. In comparison with the first quarter of the year, the GDP of the euro area decreased by 11,4% and that of the European Union by 11,8%.

Other events in focus:

  • INE publishes the 30-day quick estimate of quarterly national accounts for the third quarter
  • INE publishes the quick estimate of inflation, the provisional data of companies in Portugal, as well as the Index of Turnover, Employment, Wages and Hours Worked in Retail Trade
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EUR 3 billion. First tranche of European support to Portugal arrives this Tuesday

This amount of 3 billion euros, which is included in the SURE program, with a total value of 5.900 million euros for employment aid, is intended to support workers and companies and will be financed through a loan to Portugal by the European Commission.

Tourism. The sector registered only one million guests in October, 59% less than in 2019

The Alentejo region was the most affected by the crisis that the sector is going through. The Algarve, in turn, experienced a 4% increase in overnight stays from residents, which INE indicates is related to the holding of the Portuguese Grand Prix in Formula 1, in Portimão.

Unemployment rate stood at 7,5% in October

The statistical office indicates that, in October, the youth unemployment rate was estimated at 23,9%, corresponding to a 0,4 percentage point decrease compared to the September 2020 rate. The adult unemployment rate was estimated at 6,4%, having decreased 0,4 percentage points compared to September.