The rating agency DBRS Morningstar estimates a drop in Portuguese gross domestic product (GDP) of 7,5% in a moderate scenario and 8,5% in an adverse scenario, according to a note released today.
According to the document, in the moderate scenario, the fall in GDP in 2020 will be 7,5%, followed by a recovery of 5,0% in 2021 and a subsequent growth of 3,0% in 2022.
In the adverse scenario, the fall in GDP will be 8,5% this year, followed by a lower recovery, 1,5%, in 2021, and a subsequent growth of 3,5% in 2022.
The unemployment rate, in the moderate scenario, will evolve from 7,0% in 2020 to 8,5% in 2021, dropping to 7,5% in 2022.
In the adverse scenario, Portuguese unemployment will be 7,5% this year, worsening to 10,0% in 2021 and down to 9,0% in 2022, according to DBRS Morningstar estimates.
In the document, which addresses the fourth quarter globally, it is indicated that growth in the last three months of the year could be subdued "and could result in a renewed decline" in an analysis by quarters "in some countries".
Despite the development of vaccines for covid-19 and resuming control of disease transmission, DBRS still notes “risks that virus transmission will be difficult to contain in the coming months, with adverse effects on activity well into the first quarter of 2021 ”.
"Overall, we expect a more significant recovery in demand for personal services - particularly the travel and hospitality industry - starting in the third quarter of 2021, but we continue to expect a full recovery to take at least another 4-6 quarters," read the note.
According to DBRS, in addition to minor declines in Norway and Ireland, "the economic downturn in the other Nordics, Australia, Japan and the United States was also relatively modest".
“At the other extreme, Spain and the United Kingdom will probably end the year with double-digit declines in product”, with DBRS noting that “the 'Spanish performance' was particularly surprising, passing from one of the best performing economies in the Europe in the period preceding the pandemic for the worst ”, with France and Italy also expecting strong breaks.
According to DBRS, the worst benefits of European countries (Spain, the United Kingdom, France and Italy) are associated with countries "that have had the worst experience with the virus and (as a result) have imposed some of the toughest restrictions on activity".
In addition to structural issues such as the percentage of employment associated with tourism, DBRS points out that differences between countries may also be associated with “the priority of economic activity in some countries, even at the expense of increased transmission of the virus and a greater degree of tolerance. to saturation in hospitals ”.
"Although budget support has clearly played a role in preventing a further decline in consumer spending and keeping businesses viable, countries with the largest deficit increases have not necessarily had better benefits so far," notes the Canadian agency.
"The recoveries will still be likely to be more robust in cases where government budget support is increased in 2021", the document reads.
The agency warns, however, that "the depth of the breach may, in some cases, reflect the acceleration of structural changes, and some economies may find it difficult to adjust and increase employment opportunities for displaced workers", resulting in "some risk permanent damage to productivity and the use of the workforce ”in some economies.