According to the document, “the recovery of the Portuguese economy should only accompany the European recovery temporarily, but not its pace” and “it will be asymmetric because the pandemic is restructuring activities, both externally and internally”.
The picture of economic prospects for Portugal depends on the evolution of the pandemic, the pace of international and European economic recovery and also on 'Brexit', says the consultant.
SaeR stresses that the Portuguese economy recovered in the third quarter of 2020, with a growth of 13,3% compared to the previous quarter, although with a contraction of 5,7% in year-on-year terms, adding that “the fourth quarter should already register, again, a contraction, similar to, among others, the economies of the euro area ”.
"The tourism / HORECA sector [hotels, restaurants and cafes] are seriously affected, as well as air transport and cultural activities" and "the evolution in the first quarter of 2021 is not expected to improve", underlines the consultant.
According to the document, “Portugal is faced with the instability of the parliamentary alliance, which has allowed the continuity of the minority government of the Socialist Party, and with the lack of definition of the strategy of growth and modernization in the economy, when it assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU. and if the presidential elections are going to take place ”.
“It would be an opportunity for long-term reflection, but it will be hindered by cyclical circumstances,” the report reads.
According to SaeR, in the tourism sector, the impact of the measures implemented to contain the spread of the pandemic will be longer, “with no conditions to predict that this activity will resume, in any way that is economically sustainable, in a predictable period with some degree of certainty ”.